Joel
Netshitenzhe
Article:
Letter from Tshwane
28 April
2000
Of statistics and
social health
Complex phenomena
require some kind of shorthand to communicate. A figure
here and a trend there provide material for quick and easy
reference.
But if not rigorously
computed, statistics can deceive. And the consequences can
be dire.
Don’t we
all bother about our pulse rate or sugar-level or vision?
And if our doctors made a wrong diagnosis, the effect can
range from the after-taste of saccharin or terrible headaches,
to heart seizure from over-exertion.
Medical practitioners
also refer to patients of the "doctor-I’m-in-trouble"
variety: a small pain conjures up images of a failing heart
or bowels ripped apart by aggravated ulcers. And so the
hypochondriacs spend their lives gripped by fear of imagined
illness, a sorry picture of permanent discomfort.
So it is with
society. Statistics on the economy, social dynamics and
public opinion provide easy reference for us to understand
our society.
As such, when
Reserve Bank Governor, Tito Mboweni complained a fortnight
ago about employment statistics, we all had to sit up and
listen. That there has been no follow up on this issue is
a sad commentary on the state of public discourse in our
country.
Mboweni’s
statement could not have been stronger: the informal sector
seemed not to be adequately covered in official statistics.
And in debate on job losses, the growing trend of contracting
out and outsourcing is hardly referred to.
A few months ago,
President Thabo Mbeki made a similar point about rape statistics.
The oft-quoted figure of a rape every twenty-six seconds
has been found to be highly questionable.
Recently, at the
United Nations Congress on the Prevention of Crime and Treatment
of Offenders another myth was debunked: South Africa is
not the crime capital of the world after all. If you insist
on identifying one, look elsewhere.
What of our belief
in having gone forth and multiplied which the 1996 Census
punctured? What of the size and growth rate of our economy,
which were adjusted last year partly to bring on board factors
historically ignored or underrated? One can go on and on.
Now, statistics
fuel a belief and self-image which are difficult to undo.
The inverse is also true. The concern here in Tshwane is
about the tendency to shout down those who are bold enough
to challenge a conventional view.
This can be impelled
by material self-interest. If a nasty figure provides stunning
motivation for a fund-raising proposal, wouldn’t one
want to burn dissenters at the stake? Or it could be a case
of social hypochondria: people who "know" that,
because of the end of racial privilege, an apocalypse has
simply been postponed. Ordinary mishaps thus conjure up
images of an impending implosion.
Of course there
is also genuine anxiety that a preoccupation with debating
statistics can take the wind out of the sails of campaigns
on serious social issues such as rape, other violent crime
and the HIV/AIDS pandemic.
Yet, particularly
as a young democracy, we cannot recoil from a dispassionate
search for accurate data on our social dynamics. Statistics
impact on policy priorities and trade-offs; they shape social
mood and a country’s image.
Take the UN world
crime statistics, for instance. The researchers point out
that most countries are reluctant to release these statistics;
and the "victims survey method" helps improve
accuracy. On the other hand, with regard to reporting crime
statistics, South Africa is a paragon of excellence.
More critically,
an examination of this survey shows that some countries
with much higher crime are rated better than South Africa
in terms of perceptions of "lawfulness" by world
business leaders. Is this because of the dubious self-imposed
mantle of "crime capital" or the violent nature
of much of our crime, or both? Whatever is the case, society
needs to pursue this.
Statistics SA
has been improving the country’s information base.
In doing so, it is determined to maintain its autonomy and
the integrity of its products. It is also striving to ensure
that at least purveyors of official statistics - and there
are many of them in government - act on the basis of proper
methodology and are driven by high ethical standards.
As the country
strives to improve its statistics, an unpleasant reality
stands out in bold relief. This is the dearth of professionals
in this field. In economics, out of the myriad of South
African universities, only Stellenbosch and two or three
others offer a degree in econometrics. The search for accurate
data on our social health should, therefore, be combined
with intense human resource development.
It is critical
that we all learn to accept rigorous data even if it challenges
our beliefs; and media have an added responsibility to avoid
urban legends. In this process, South Africa will also need
to adjust its screams of pain and pleasure to objective
reality.
Joel Netshitenzhe
CEO, Government Communications (GCIS)
Published in Independent Newspapers
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